市場情報

UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting note that Philippine inflation unexpectedly eased in May but remains above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target, keeping risks tilted to the upside.

NZD/USD falls sharply towards the 0.5790 region on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following a stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, while the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggled to attract buyers amid a cautious market mood.

DBS Group Research’s Chang Wei Liang highlights that USD/KRW has pushed above 1530 as weakness in semiconductor stocks adds pressure on the Korean Won.

Silver (XAG/USD) price tanks and challenges the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $67.79 on Friday, as the white metal registers a daily loss of nearly 8% and is poised to end the week down by almost 10%, amid a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Standard Chartered economists Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee revise their Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) policy rate path, dropping expectations for a 50bps off-cycle hike before the 18 June meeting.

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao highlights that Indonesia’s onshore markets are under pressure, with the Rupiah at record lows and equities near six‑year lows.

The US Dollar (USD) rallied to near 100.10 on Friday, rising from a daily low of 99.16, after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the economy added 172K jobs in May, well above the 85K expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this yea

UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, led by Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya, argues that Thailand’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data confirm a cost-push rather than demand-led inflation backdrop.

NZD/USD slips to its lowest level since April on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) receives fresh bids in the wake of solid US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.5800 and is heading for a weekly loss of nearly 3%.

US Treasury yields skyrocket across the whole curve on Friday, with the 2-year Treasury note yield rising over 12 basis points, while the benchmark note, the 10-year, surges six basis points following an outstanding Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The Euro registers modest gains of 0.12% as traders remain optimistic about the outcome of US-Iran talks, which had been uninterrupted, as revealed by the Pakistani Foreign Minister to journalist Mallick.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/IDR has hit a fresh record high above 18,000, while Indonesian equities have slumped to multi-year lows.

The NZD/USD pair trades near the 0.5870 level on Friday, as the United States Dollar (USD) remains supported by cautious Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary and safe-haven demand amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD has broken to a two‑month high near 1.2840, with strong momentum pointing to further Dollar strength against the Singapore Dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward 99.18 early Thursday before steadily climbing during the North American session to 99.45 as investors digested comments from a series of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that IDR is under particular pressure as rising US yields intersect with domestic policy uncertainty and higher energy prices.

Commerzbank highlights that Vietnam’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 5.6% year-on-year, the highest since January 2020, driven by food and energy costs, while the trade deficit widened to a record USD 5.2 billion on strong import growth.

Silver (XAG/USD) price bounces off weekly lows at $72.46 on Thursday, trading near $74.00, up over 1.70% on the day, as market mood is mixed, with investors rotating out of technology stocks and into other sectors, even though tensions around the Middle East conflict remain high.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report a sharp rebound in USD/CNH above 6.78, which invalidated their prior bearish view. They now see the pair as neutral, expecting consolidation between 6.7620 and 6.7980 near term, with 6.7850 and 6.7980 acting as key resistance levels.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil slips nearly 3% on Thursday as market sentiment improves following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $91 per barrel, snapping a three-day winning streak.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) drops some 0.70% on Wednesday against the US Dollar (USD) as risk appetite shifted sour as hostilities in the Middle East resumed amid the lack of progress in US-Iran talks to reach a deal

The NZD/USD pair trades near the 0.5860 region on Thursday, down more than 1% in the day, as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas, said on Wednesday that inflation remains too elevated and warned that higher interest rates could be needed later this year if price pressures fail to ease further.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades with a firmer tone near the 99.50 price region as a stronger-than-expected United States (US) ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 54.5 in May from 53.6 in April, highlighting the resilience of the US economy and supporting Treasury yields.

DBS Group Research’s Radhika Rao expects Philippines inflation to climb further above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target, driven by food, fuel and currency weakness. She notes some easing in sequential pressures from lower fuel prices and utilities.

According to Fars, Saeed Ajorlou, a member of the Iranian negotiating team, outlined a four-stage proposal for a deal between Iran and the US

The Federal Reserve (Fed) released the latest Beige Book on Wednesday, which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) uses in discussions about setting monetary policy. The Beige Book gathers information from the Fed's 12 districts and provides an overall picture of the US economy.

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes that Indonesia’s May inflation accelerated on higher food and energy costs but remains within Bank Indonesia’s target band. She highlights weather risks, Rupiah weakness and a shrinking trade surplus as key concerns.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil climbs to its highest level in nearly two weeks on Wednesday as renewed hostilities in the Middle East dent hopes of a near-term US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Sky News Arabia, citing a Lebanese source, reported a lack of progress in the current round of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel in Washington.

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen notes that China’s May PMIs point to softer 2Q26 GDP growth, with manufacturing hovering at the expansion threshold and services rebounding only modestly.

BNY's Bob Savage notes that most MENA (Middle East and North Africa) currencies saw net selling in May after a brief April respite, with fixed income also underperforming.

The NZD/USD pair trades near the 0.5930 region on Wednesday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens following upbeat labor-market data, while investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming economic releases from New Zealand. At the time of writing, the pair declines around 0.15%.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that USD/CNH was little changed on Monday around 6.7652, but the underlying tone has softened. They expect the pair to drift lower intraday within 6.7595–6.7690 rather than stage a sharp decline.

The Euro (EUR) consolidates within familiar levels on Tuesday, flatlining around 1.1630 as the US Dollar (USD) recovers some ground, underpinned by high Oil prices amid halted US-Iran talks, even though US President Donald Trump says this is fake news.

OCBC's strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong lower their Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) forecasts despite Bank Indonesia’s (BI) larger-than-expected 50 bp hike, arguing that renewed domestic policy uncertainty and an unfavourable external backdrop are weighing on IDR.

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research has raised his USD/PHP year-end 2026 forecast to 62.7 from 57.8, reflecting persistent external and domestic pressures. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and higher Oil prices have widened trade deficits and pushed inflation well above target.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened near the 99.20 price zone after the latest JOLTS Job Openings report surged to 7.618 million in April from 6.887 million in March, well above market expectations of 6.88 million.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is sitting near the top of the major currency leaderboard, adding close to 0.3% on the day and pushing back toward 0.7200 after defending 0.7150. Almost none of that strength is homegrown.

Standard Chartered’s Tommy Wu reports that the bank’s revamped Renminbi Globalisation Index shows higher global RMB usage in February–April 2026 versus late 2025.

The Australian Dollar loses traction and edges down 0.30% on Monday as risk appetite soured due to Iran halting negotiations with the US, as Israel intensified attacks in Lebanon.

Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank argues that market concerns over Japan’s fiscal stance are exaggerated, even after a new 3.1 trillion JPY supplementary budget funded largely by debt.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects Central and Eastern European FX to start the month cautiously despite improving sentiment and busy local data.

Pound Sterling has the rare luxury, or curse, of a completely blank week. There is no first-tier United Kingdom data on the docket, no Bank of England (BoE) event, nothing for the Pound to trade on its own merits.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is in an odd spot: it has one of the few central banks in the developed world openly leaning toward higher rates, yet it still spent Monday on the back foot, down close to 1% on the day. That tells you most of what you need to know about whose week this is.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps doing the one thing Tokyo least wants: drifting weaker into the zone where intervention becomes a live question. USD/JPY firmed back above 159.50 and pressed toward the 160.00 handle on Monday, the same threshold that triggered official Yen-buying at the end of April.

BNP Paribas reports that Chinese GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026 from 4.5% in Q4 2025, but is expected to slow moderately over the year. The bank highlights a K-shaped trajectory, with dynamic exports but sluggish domestic demand and ongoing property sector stress.

The USD/CHF pair forms a ‘bullish piercing’ chart pattern on Monday, which confirms further upside, but it faces key resistance at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7868. At the time of writing, the pair is trading with a 0.70% gain, around 0.7860.

HSBC Asset Management observes that 2026 has brought sharp swings in rate expectations for the Bank of England and European Central Bank, with markets moving from cuts to hikes as Oil-linked inflation risks rise.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises toward the 99.20 region on Monday after stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data reinforced confidence in the resilience of the United States (US) economy.