市场资讯

The GBP/JPY pair ticks up to near 215.70 during the early European trade on Monday. The pair edges higher as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its major currency peers amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy, which will be announced on Tuesday.

The EUR/GBP cross holds steady around 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Markets turn cautious ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions on Thursday. 

Gold (XAU/USD) rallies over $50 from the $4,672 region, or the Asian session low on Monday, though it lacks follow-through buying.

The USD/JPY pair gives back its opening gains and trades marginally lower around 159.20 during the late Asian trading session on Monday. The pair surrenders early gains as the US Dollar (USD) turns upside down despite the United States (US)-Iran diplomacy remaining at a stalemate.

The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 114.15 during the early European session on Monday. Reports that Iran gave the US a proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war improve market sentiment, supporting the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar (AUD).

The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the 1.3680 area on Monday, though it lacks follow-through selling.

The Indian Rupee (INR) holds onto weekly losses against the US Dollar (USD) at open on Monday.

USD/CHF remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 0.7840 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) extends its losses despite increased safe-haven demand.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers in the vicinity of the 1.3500 psychological mark and climbs to over a one-week top during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.3500s, up 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further.

Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks in ‌Oman on Sunday and discussed security in the Strait of Hormuz and broader Gulf waters and diplomatic efforts to end the Iran-US conflict, Reuters reported on Sunday.

US President Donald Trump was swiftly escorted off the stage by Secret Service after possible shots were fired at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, DC, on Saturday, CNN reported.

US President Donald Trump said an Iran war will end soon and the US will be victorious, FOX News reported on Sunday. His remarks came as Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran.

The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.7145 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) amid fragile peace talks in the Middle East, and markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. 

Efforts to resume peace talks over the Iran war stalled after US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. The Islamic Republic said it won’t negotiate so long as it’s being threatened.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong flag slight upside risks for USD/SGD as the Hormuz standoff weighs on risk appetite and imported cost pressures.

Commerzbank highlights that BSP raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, signalling the start of a new tightening cycle to anchor inflation expectations.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe a technical rebound in USD/TWD driven by broader US Dollar (USD) strength and risk aversion linked to the US‑Iran ceasefire stalemate.

DBS Group Research economist Samuel Tse analyses recent steepening in Chinese Yuan (CNY) rates, linking it to a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran and stronger-than-expected Q1 growth in China.

USD/CHF dropped on Friday but finished the week with gains of over 0.35%, trading at 0.7841 as market participants grew confident that US-Iran talks could resume over the weekend to resolve the conflict.

Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that USD/IDR has broken to fresh highs, overshooting earlier expectations for near-term stabilization. The move is attributed more to domestic confidence and fiscal uncertainty than broad US Dollar (USD) strength.

Silver (XAG/USD) price edges up over 0.50% during Friday’s session, after bouncing off a daily low of $73.95. Speculation about a resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is cheered by investors, which pushed US equities higher in tandem with the precious metals segment.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the central bank of Philippines Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) 25bp hike to 4.5% and guidance that further increases are possible as inflation forecasts are revised higher and second-round effects emerge.

TD Securities strategists, including Andrew Kelvin and colleagues, expect the Bank of Canada to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through the April meeting and likely for the rest of 2026.

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman expects the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave Bank Rate at 3.75% at the April meeting, maintaining its vigilant stance.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near the 98.50 price zone and continues drifting lower from recent highs as markets unwind part of the recent US Dollar (USD) rally despite still strong United States (US) data and ongoing Middle East tensions.

Gold (XAU/USD) price recovers some ground on Friday, extending its gains above $4,700 as market sentiment remains upbeat amid headlines from Iran and the US pointing to a resumption of second-round talks aimed at ending the conflict. At the time of writing XAU/USD trades at $4,726, up 0.47%.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback weakens amid renewed hopes for US–Iran talks after stalled negotiations.

Commerzbank’s Chief Economist Dr. Jörg Krämer argues that the sharp fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index underlines how severely the energy price shock is weighing on the German economy.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Islamabad on Friday evening to open the long-delayed second round of talks with the US, and special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner are due in on Saturday morning.

Standard Chartered economists Dan Pan and Steve Englander assess the impact of the United States (US) Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling on US tariff revenue. They note that tariff income has fallen but remains well above pre-Liberation Day levels.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that the ongoing United States (US) blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is building a significant inflation shock for the US and globally, with Oil and input costs surging.

ING analysts Frantisek Taborsky and Zoltán Homolya expect central bank of the Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.25% throughout 2026.

TD Securities economists, including Julie Ioffe and colleagues, expect the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% in a unanimous decision, maintaining a wait-and-see stance.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is consolidating just below 160.00 after slightly hotter March Consumer Price Index (CPI) that leaves Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations unchanged for now.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight target at 2.25%, extending a fourth consecutive hold.

The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the upcoming meeting, resisting political pressure for cuts as inflation remains above target and oil-driven price shocks persist.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, lacking clear direction as upside remains capped by Oil-driven inflation linked to ongoing US-Iran tensions, which have raised expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed as USD/CAD retreats from repeated tests of the low 1.37 area.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny links the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure to rising Oil and input costs, with agricultural and fuel prices already surging. Halpenny assumes crude Oil averages USD 115 in Q2, lifting US inflation toward 3.8% later this year.

USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.14% on the day and ending a sequence of four consecutive days of gains. The move comes amid a pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as improving market sentiment reduces demand for safe-haven assets.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that Brent Oil continues to climb as US-Iran tensions persist and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Brent futures across the curve have pushed to multi‑week highs, with US gasoline and inflation swaps also rising.

The EUR/USD pair trades in a tight range around 1.1700 during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair consolidates while the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly firm, with investors shifting focus to central banks’ policy meetings next week.

Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from a nearly two-week low, touched earlier this Friday, though it lacks follow-through and remains below the $4,700 mark through the first half of the European session.

ING’s Chris Turner says rising short-dated Eurozone yields on higher Oil and pass-through of input costs are not clearly supportive for EUR/USD. He argues the European Central Bank must get ahead of inflation expectations and that current real rate differentials are unsupportive.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 24:

The German IFO Institute Business Climate Index deteriorates at a faster-than-expected pace to 84.4 in April. The sentiment data was expected to arrive at 85.5, down from 86.3 in March, revised lower from 86.4.

BNY’s Bob Savage notes that Q1 S&P 500 earnings are strong but upside versus expectations is modest, with uneven Q2 and full‑year guidance. Sector leadership is concentrated in semiconductors, AI-linked names and parts of energy, while defense lags.

Crude prices are consolidating gains on Friday, following a three-day rally, as investors pare back hopes of an imminent peace deal between the US and Iran.