市场资讯

Societe Generale economists expect Euro area headline inflation to rise sharply in March, driven by higher energy costs, while core inflation eases slightly.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said that there is tension between the Fed's two objectives, while participating in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class in Cambridge, per Reuters.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the Japanese Yen opened very weak, with USD/JPY spiking near 160.50 before stabilizing after fresh warnings of potential “bold action” from Japan’s Vice Finance Minister Mimura.

National Bank of Canada’s (NBC) Angelo Katsoras outlines how an Iran conflict could severely disrupt Oil and gas markets if key energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz are targeted.

Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve (Fed), said that inflation expectations have not been affected yet by higher Oil prices. He told CNBC on Monday that he is still concerned about the labor market, even though the Fed can accommodate that.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to gain traction on Monday, trimming part of its earlier gains as escalating tensions in the Middle East and shifting interest rate expectations keep markets volatile.

BNP Paribas analysts expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with GDP at 2.7% and inflation at 3.1%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with the Fed Funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%.

Societe Generale economists note the United Kingdom (UK) markets still price around 70 bps of Bank of England (BoE) easing in 2026 despite Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) pushback, while the bank’s team expects no cuts this year.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Monday, supported by a pullback in US Treasury yields as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $70.50, up nearly 1% on the day.

TD Securities analysts anticipate the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) March Summary of Deliberations will maintain a dovish tone, stressing excess supply and disinflation.

The Pound (GBP) accelerated its downtrend against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday.

USD/CAD continues its winning streak for the sixth successive day, trading around 1.3920 during the European hours on Monday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) regains its ground amid increased safe-haven demand on rising doubts over a resolution to the Iran war.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that USD/JPY has reclaimed its 50‑DMA and is breaking above its multi‑year range, pointing to further upside toward 162.00 and the 163.20/163.70 channel top.

The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate Oil (WTI) has pulled back from three-week highs at $101.40 per barrel on Monday’s Asian session opening times, but downside attempts remain contained above $98.50, as US President Donald Trump maintains a mixed position on Iran.

Dow Jones futures gain 0.20% to above 45,500 during European hours, ahead of the United States (US) regular market open on Monday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.30% and 0.25% to near 6,430 and 23,390, respectively, at the time of writing.

Gold (XAU/USD) turns higher for the second straight day following an intraday slide to the $4,420 area and climbs to a fresh daily high, around the $4,550 region during the first half of the European session on Monday.

BNY’s Bob Savage argues that Eurozone stagflation risks are building as energy pressures rise, with headline CPI pushed higher by fuel while core remains contained.

EUR/JPY depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 183.60 during the European hours on Monday.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay explains that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has capped banks’ net open Indian Rupee (INR) positions at USD 100 million per day to curb speculation and volatility.

The Aussie Dollar (AUD) is trimming losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The pair bounced from two-month lows around 0.6840 but is struggling to rise above 0.6870, as negative market sentiment keeps weighing on any significant Aussie recovery.

The AUD/USD pair is down 0.3% around 0.6850 during the Asian trade at the start of the week. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as risk-off impulse, driven by fears of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, is acting as a key drag on the Australian Dollar (AUD).

The EUR/USD pair recovers a few pips after retesting a one-week low earlier this Monday and holds steady around the 1.1500 psychological mark during the Asian session.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower near 100.15 in the Asian trading session on Monday after retracing from its intraday high of 100.35. Still, the USD Index is close to its two-week high.

S&P 500 futures fall around 0.6% to 6,370, seven-month lows, during Asian trading hours, ahead of the US regular session open on Monday. US equity futures remain under pressure as risk aversion rises, with uncertainty over a resolution to the Iran conflict deepening.

The GBP/JPY cross turns lower for the third straight day following a modest Asian session uptick to the 213.00 neighborhood on Monday and drops to a one-week low in the last hour.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades higher against its major currency peers during the Asian trading session on Monday, snapping a four-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD), trading 0.2% down to near 160.00.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9223 compared to Friday's fix of 6.9141.

The USD/CHF pair attracts fresh buyers following a modest Asian session dip to the 0.7970 area and touches a fresh high since January 19 at the start of a new week.

NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the fifth successive day, trading around 0.5730 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as risk aversion intensifies amid fears of a potential United States (US) ground invasion in Iran.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said during Asian trading hours on Monday, after the release of the central bank’s Summary of Opinions, that changes in the foreign exchange (FX) market are key factors that have a huge impact on Japan's economy, and prices.

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng highlights that Thailand’s financial markets, particularly the Thai Baht (THB) and equities, are under pressure due to vulnerability to Middle East conflict-related commodity shocks.

UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, via Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting, notes that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept the RRP (Reverse Repurchase Rate) rate at 4.25% in an off-cycle meeting as supply-driven inflation and Middle East risks intensify.

Silver (XAG/USD) price turns positive on Friday after posting back-to-back bearish sessions, as heightened tensions in the Middle East decreased the white metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting traders to turn to the US Dollar (USD).

Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Volkmar Baur say China’s industrial profits surged early in 2026, led by AI-related electronics, but this strength predates the recent energy shock.

DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s March CPI inflation to stay firm at 4% year-on-year, slightly below February’s 4.8%, but with a faster monthly pace. Analysts highlight the impact of higher energy prices and festive demand, as well as base effects.

Gold (XAU/USD) price rallies over 3% on Friday as dip buyers emerge, amid the conflict entering its fifth week of hostilities, with no signs of de-escalation, and as inflation pressures rise. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,510 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,375.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyses how the Iran conflict exposes India’s macro vulnerabilities through imported energy dependence and trade route risks. Kundu highlights broad spillovers from higher Oil and gas prices into the consumption basket and external balances.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with AUD/USD extending losses for a fourth straight day as the Greenback remains broadly supported amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

DBS Group Research sees South Korea’s March exports remaining in double-digit growth, supported by strong AI and data centre demand, higher memory prices and supply shortages, leading to a wider trade surplus despite rising import costs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbled on Friday, shedding roughly 510 points or 1.1% to fall below 45,500 and officially enter correction territory.

NZD/USD falls for the fourth consecutive day and trades around 0.5750 on Friday, down 0.17% at the time of writing, pressured by renewed risk aversion and the resilience of the US Dollar (USD).

ING’s Deepali Bhargava warns that higher Oil prices and supply disruptions are worsening growth, inflation and external balances in the Philippines.

Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank has revised Gold forecasts higher, now seeing USD 5,000 per ounce by end-2026 and USD 5,200 next year, despite a recent 15% drop.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Claire Fan and Abbey Xu expect Canadian GDP to be essentially flat in January after December’s 0.2% gain, with weakness concentrated in autos and housing but offset by energy and retail.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Friday, stabilizing after falling nearly 2.75% the previous day, as evolving geopolitical headlines around the US-Israel war with Iran continue to drive volatility across global markets.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $68.50 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.59% on the day, supported by renewed investor interest. Despite this uptick, the white metal remains within a broadly sideways trend, as market participants stay cautious amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD has slipped slightly below yesterday’s low as Dollar strength persists. ECB data show moderating inflation expectations, while President Lagarde signaled caution on rate moves given energy-price risks.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that Banxico’s 25 bp rate cut to 6.75% came with largely unchanged inflation forecasts and a projection of a return to target in early 2027.

GBP/JPY trades flat on Friday after slipping earlier in the European session, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened amid rising intervention fears. The move comes as USD/JPY trades within striking distance of the 160.00 level, a key zone that previously prompted action from Japanese authorities.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer updates Euro area inflation projections incorporating the Iran War and associated energy shock. The bank expects higher Oil and natural gas prices to push headline inflation above 3% in 2026 before easing back to the ECB’s 2% target by 2027.