Market Information

The USD/JPY pair recovers some lost ground to near 157.65, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day (bpd) from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Mideast war.

The AUD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.7040 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on improved risk sentiment after the reports that US President Donald Trump holds off Iran strikes.

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

CBS News reported that the United States and Israel may engage in a large campaign against Iran, targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, said multiple sources.

The Kiwi Dollar extends its three-day rally, climbing above 0.5850 and is poised to challenge 0.5900 amid improving risk appetite and broad US Dollar weakness. The clearance of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports the bullish trend, as traders eye the May monthly high at 0.5995.

The first full week of August will test whether the US Dollar can recover from its sell-off during the last week of July as investors shift their attention from central bank decisions to a fresh round of economic data.

The USD/CHF bounces off weekly lows and meanders around 0.8080 after hitting a daily high of 0.8127, amid presumed intervention, with Nikkei reporting that the US Treasury Department has told currency market participants to prepare for additional intervention, following Thursday's action by Japanese

Gold price tumbles nearly 1.50% on Friday as the US Dollar recovers some ground after Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets a day ago, driving the Greenback to a 30-day low before recovering, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The XAU/USD trades at $4,045.

Thursday's record Yen defence is the story everyone has written.

The Yen trades a fraction under 164.00 on Tuesday, marginally weaker on the day, inside a 30-pip band with a floor above 163.50 and a high a few ticks beneath the standing cycle extreme.

The Aussie trades just beneath 0.7000 on Tuesday, down around 0.25% and last in the G10 queue, after a Sydney address from the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor gave the hike case nothing to eat.

The Euro trades just under 1.1400 on Tuesday, around 0.15% firmer, after a session that ran from a shade above 1.1350 to a fraction over 1.1400.

The Pound spends Tuesday almost perfectly still, trading just under 1.3300 with a session range under 40 pips between a floor above 1.3250 and a ceiling fractionally above 1.3300.

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao analyzes Indonesia markets after Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo’s unexpected resignation. She notes initial weakness in onshore assets as investors reassess implications for Rupiah stability and bonds.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that inflation rose 4% from a year earlier, matching the May reading. The monthly CPI is foreseen at 0.2% following the -0.7% print from May.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened policy for a second straight meeting, slightly increasing the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope while leaving the band’s centre and width unchanged.

NZD/USD trades nearly unchanged around the 0.5785 area on Tuesday, struggling to extend its earlier recovery despite a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD).

Rabobank’s strategists Mauricio Une and Renan Alves note that tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have eased slightly with a pause in hostilities, but the outlook for global energy and markets remains highly uncertain.

BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam see elevated US supercore inflation as a key argument for further tightening but still favor a July hold.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH is currently consolidating in a narrow range around 6.77. In their 1–3 week view, they maintain a downside bias toward 6.7600 as long as strong resistance at 6.7820 remains intact.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying analyzes the latest Bank of Korea (BoK) decision, noting a hawkish shift as the base rate is raised to 2.75%. The report now anticipates a faster tightening cycle, with the policy rate reaching 3.25% by year-end 2026.

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday, up 0.84%, but it is poised to finish the week down over 6.50%. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $56.00 per troy ounce, after reaching a new year-to-date (YTD) low of $54.77.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao argues China’s housing market remains in structural stagnation five years after the Evergrande crisis. National prices follow an L-shaped path, with a K-shaped divergence between Tier-1 and lower-tier cities.

The Mexican Peso loses traction against the Greenback, dropping over 0.65% during Friday’s North American session as the American currency benefits due to its safe-haven appeal as the US-Iran conflict is far from ending, despite holding talks to finish the war.

Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note USD/JPY is little changed despite strong verbal intervention from Finance Minister Katayama, who warned of decisive action at any time. Markets remain unimpressed, given repeated rhetoric and limited impact from actual Yen buying.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD has stabilised after an earlier sell-off, with spot around 1.2905 and intraday price action expected to stay confined between nearby support and resistance.

The upcoming week will be dominated by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, United Kingdom (UK) inflation and labor market figures, and preliminary global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

Gold edges higher by some 0.92% on Friday as the US-Iran conflict boosted energy prices, which ultimately drive inflation higher, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might need to raise interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades near 52,250 on Friday, down nearly 300 points late in the month's strangest session.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains neutral near the 100.90 level at the end of the American session on Monday as investors digest hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller and resilient United States (US) services data.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rally into a third straight trading session, up 0.25% on Monday, as investors adjust their interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) following a soft US jobs report last week.

BNY’s Geoff Yu stresses that Chinese equities and Chinese Yuan (CNY) remain heavily under-owned versus APAC (Asia-Pacific) peers, with cross-border holdings at very low levels.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyzes Indonesia’s May 2026 trade data, highlighting the first deficit since the pandemic and a record Oil and Gas shortfall.

NZD/USD trades under pressure near the 0.5700 level as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by hawkish-leaning comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller and resilient United States (US) services data.

Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats by some 0.50% on Monday as the Greenback remains steady despite traders repricing a less hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) following last Thursday’s softer-than-expected jobs report. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,153, down 0.50%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trims its gains on Monday after opening the week on a firmer note, as traders await greater clarity on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path before placing fresh directional bets.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has spent three weeks handing back what the war spent three months building, and the tape now reads as though February never ended.

Rabobank’s FX Strategy team discusses the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ahead of the July 8 Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting, where consensus and the bank expect a 25 bp hike to 2.5%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finally crossed 53,000 on Monday, spiking to a record just above the handle in the opening minutes and holding it for roughly the length of the ceremony that produced it.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/CNH remains confined to a tight range, with the Dollar expected to trade between 6.7940 and 6.8080 in the near term.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded on a neutral stance near the 101.20 level on Tuesday as investors digested mixed United States (US) data and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary.

Gold (XAU/USD) price posts modest gains of 0.35% on Tuesday, set to end the month with losses of over 11% after retreating from monthly highs around $4,500 towards $4,000, weighed by overall US Dollar strength.

The USD/CHF pair holds firm around 0.8070 on Tuesday, after losing 0.29% on Monday, supported by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness amid month-end flows and improving risk appetite.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, supported by upbeat New Zealand business confidence data and a modest pullback in the Greenback. At the time of writing, NZD/USD trades around 0.5677, up 0.5% on the day.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said in comments to CNBC that policymakers have time to assess how higher energy prices may feed through into the United Kingdom (UK) economy, while noting that financial conditions have already tightened.

AUD/USD trades higher near 0.6915 on Tuesday as investors digest the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and a modest improvement in United States (US) Consumer Confidence.

USD/JPY trades around 162.65 at the time of writing, up 0.44% on the day, and remains close to its highest level in several decades.

The Euro (EUR) stages a rebound against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as month-end repositioning weighs modestly on the Greenback, limiting support from upbeat US economic data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1415 after hitting an intraday low of 1.1382.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances 0.11% on Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) despite UK data showing the economy is slowing, while the latest US jobs report indicated that the number of vacancies rose in May, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.