Market Information

The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5860 level, recovering after four days of straight losses. The rebound was supported by the release of solid economic data from China, New Zealand’s trading partner.

The US Dollar (USD) reversed its four-day positive streak on Monday after markets assessed the United States (US) strike on Kharg Island, a strategic Iranian Oil outpost in the Persian Gulf, and warned that if Tehran continues to disrupt naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz, the US could target Oi

The Swiss Franc (CHF) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the Greenback edges lower, allowing USD/CHF to pause a four-day winning streak. At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.7869, easing slightly after touching its highest level since January 22 on Friday.

NZD/USD rises on Monday and trades around 0.5850 at the time of writing, up 1.42% on the day. The pair rebounds after several days of decline, supported by improving risk sentiment and macroeconomic factors favorable to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

The Euro (EUR) rebounds against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the Greenback eases following its recent rally, allowing EUR/USD to rebound from the seven-month lows touched on Friday.

USD/JPY declines on Monday, trading around 159.20 at the time of writing, down 0.33% on the day as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains modest ground ahead of a crucial week for global central banks, with policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) scheduled for Wednesday and

WTI crude slid over 3% on Monday, opening near 100.00 before selling off through the session to settle below 95.00 per barrel.

United States (US) President Donald Trump said he encourages other countries to come and help the US, claiming that numerous countries told him they’re on their way when discussing the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a lunch at the Kennedy Center on Monday.

The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3310 price region, trimming almost all its losses from Friday and breaking its four-day losing streak, as investors seem to have digested the United States/Israeli escalation in the war against Iran over the weekend.

TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay analyzes how disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb are reshaping Saudi crude export risks and bypass capacity, with implications for Oil supply tightness.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme say Canada’s latest CPI print shows inflation under control before the recent rise in Oil prices. Headline and core measures are both below 2.0%, with shelter inflation moderating.

ING’s Warren Patterson revises the base case for global Energy markets, abandoning an earlier assumption of a quick two-week disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Monday after reversing intraday losses as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields ease following its recent rally.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Senior Economist Claire Fan notes that Canadian headline inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, but base effects from last year’s GST/HST holiday and the removal of the consumer carbon tax distort comparisons.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley argues that while the Swiss Franc meets many safe-haven criteria, its strength remains problematic for the SNB given very low inflation and a zero policy rate.

USD/CAD trades on the back foot on Monday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from a softer US Dollar (USD), while traders show a muted reaction to the latest Canadian inflation data as attention remains firmly focused on heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing US-Iran war.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage underlines a notable break in traditional correlations between the Dollar, Oil and equities as investors navigate the Iran conflict and central bank meetings.

MUFG analysts maintain a short EUR/USD stance, arguing that the Euro faces a larger negative terms-of-trade shock from higher Oil and natural gas prices.

The United States (US) Industrial Production rose 0.2% MoM in February versus the 0.7% advance from January. At the same time, Capacity Utilization stood at 76.3%, matching the revised figure from January, according to a Federal Reserve (Fed) report.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights a bullish breakout in the US Dollar index above its 96.000–100.00 range, supported by surging Oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed.

The Indian Rupee (INR) snaps four-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The USD/INR pair trades lower to near 92.70 as the Indian Rupee rebounds amid speculation that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades firmly against its major currency pairs, except the antipodeans, during the European trading session on Monday. The USD/JPY pair is down 0.26% to near 159.30 at the start of the busy central banks’ week.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the South African Rand has been one of the clear losers from the Iran conflict, hurt by weaker precious metals exports and higher imported energy costs.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a second consecutive 25 bps hike to 4.10%, though it is described as a close call. Futures imply slightly better than even odds of a move.

Societe Generale economists note that EUR/GBP has slipped below its 200‑DMA and is testing the February low near 0.8610, which may offer interim support.

Gold price (XAU/USD) loses ground for the fourth successive session, hovering around $5,000 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.

DBS Group economist Philip Wee warns that USD/JPY is nearing the 160 level, raising intervention risks as Japan and South Korea step up verbal defence of their currencies. Tokyo is in closer contact with US authorities, and a surprise BOJ rate hike on March 19 cannot be ruled out.

On Monday, attention in Canada will turn to the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that EUR/USD has found support near 1.1390/1.1400 after a sharp 3% decline, but elevated Oil prices and heavy net Euro longs still pose downside risks.

Gold price (XAU/USD) slumps to around $4,967.70 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal faces selling pressure as uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy announcement by major central banks this week is dominating the intense geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

AUD/USD edges higher after two days of losses, trading around 0.7010 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair holds ground following the release of key economic data from China.

The NZD/USD pair gains traction to near 0.5805 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the Chinese February Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports.

China’s Retail Sales rose 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) in January-February vs. 2.5% expected and 0.9% in December, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.

Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi said on Monday that “Japan has no plan currently to dispatch its navy to the Middle East to escort vessels.”

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, retreats after touching a near 10-month high of 100.54 in the previous session, trading around 100.20 during Asian hours on Monday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices retreated from the vicinity of the $100.00 psychological mark, or a one-week high touched during the Asian session on Monday.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9057 compared to last Friday's fix of 6.9007 and 6.9061 Reuters estimate.

The United Kingdom (UK) plans to send minesweeping drones to the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to allow the flow of oil exports to resume, the Guardian reported on Sunday.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that officials were prepared to take decisive steps on foreign exchange. Policymakers declined to comment on specific currency levels.

After US President Donald Trump called on allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House is planning to announce that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition to escort ships through the corridor.

South Korea’s presidential office said in a statement on Sunday, “we will communicate closely with the US regarding this matter and make a decision after careful review.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the country’s military, said in its social media post on X on Sunday that Iran continued to launch missiles toward the territory of the State of Israel.

In an interview with NBC News on Saturday, US President Donald Trump commented on the military strikes on the Kharg Island and whether he was prepared to make a deal with Iran while pressing allies once again to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the US struck military targets at a strategic Iranian outpost in the Persian Gulf and warned it could hit oil infrastructure next if Tehran keeps disrupting energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying the two-week conflict in the region.

The Euro finalized the week posting losses of over 1.74% against the Greenback and 0.84% in the day. The EUR/USD posted four bearish days after falling below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1672, turning the pair bearishly biased. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1414.

An article of the Wall Street Journal mentioned that a Federal Judge threw out a pair of subpoenas that the Justice Department issued to the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Gold price loses some 0.70% on Friday. It seems poised to end the week with losses of more than 2% as the Greenback remains the choice for safety amid the Middle East conflict, which has increased investors' angst over a reacceleration of inflation.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/KRW has pushed toward 1,495, reflecting KRW’s high-beta nature during geopolitical stress and energy price spikes.

The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week on a firmer stance as the US/Israeli war against Iran closes in on two weeks. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has spiked Oil prices, boosting inflation risks and prompting investors to hide in safe-haven currencies like the Greenback.

Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Henry Hao expects upcoming China data to confirm a structural divergence: Industrial Production around 5.5% year-on-year, supported by a 21.8% export surge in green tech, versus modest 3.0% retail sales and subdued Fixed-Asset Investment near 1.5%.