市场资讯

DBS Group Research anticipates China’s credit demand to stay weak in July, with new Yuan loans around RMB 10.8 billion and M2 growth at 8% year-on-year. Corporate and household medium- to long-term lending are likely to soften amid cautious borrowing and mortgage prepayments.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CNH confined to a narrow intraday range, with flat momentum suggesting consolidation between 6.7450 and 6.7550.

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s final 2Q26 GDP to be revised up to 5.9% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, driven by stronger manufacturing and services.

A US official said on Friday that there is progress in Oman-Iran talks and that a deal could be signed soon, according to Reuters. Once the deal is announced, this would restore commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US would lift the blockade. 

The British Pound retreats against the Japanese Yen, down about 0.24%, as the Yen is poised to end the week on a higher note. However, GBP/JPY is poised to finish the week with minimal gains, trading at 212.64.

Standard Chartered’s Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at the 27 August meeting, abandoning a previously projected hike.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100.00 region after sinking through Friday's session. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed the US economy shedding 23K jobs against forecasts of an 80K gain, with June revised down to 20K, and Average Hourly Earnings slowing to 3.2% on the year.

US Treasury yields drop across the curve on Friday amid growing speculation that the Iran-Oman deal is about to be sealed, which has so far pushed energy prices lower, while investors also digest a weak Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US.

Commerzbank’s FX analysts, including Charlie Lay and Moses Lim, note that USD/IDR slipped slightly but stayed below the key 18,000 level as softer global Oil prices and stronger Indonesia Q2 GDP supported the Rupiah.

Silver price surges nearly 3% as it clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62.13, and reclaims the $63.00 figure as it struggles to surpass key resistance seen at $63.28, the July 6 high.

The USD/JPY pair recovers some lost ground to near 157.65, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day (bpd) from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Mideast war.

The AUD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.7040 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on improved risk sentiment after the reports that US President Donald Trump holds off Iran strikes.

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

CBS News reported that the United States and Israel may engage in a large campaign against Iran, targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, said multiple sources.

The Kiwi Dollar extends its three-day rally, climbing above 0.5850 and is poised to challenge 0.5900 amid improving risk appetite and broad US Dollar weakness. The clearance of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports the bullish trend, as traders eye the May monthly high at 0.5995.

The first full week of August will test whether the US Dollar can recover from its sell-off during the last week of July as investors shift their attention from central bank decisions to a fresh round of economic data.

The USD/CHF bounces off weekly lows and meanders around 0.8080 after hitting a daily high of 0.8127, amid presumed intervention, with Nikkei reporting that the US Treasury Department has told currency market participants to prepare for additional intervention, following Thursday's action by Japanese

Gold price tumbles nearly 1.50% on Friday as the US Dollar recovers some ground after Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets a day ago, driving the Greenback to a 30-day low before recovering, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The XAU/USD trades at $4,045.

Thursday's record Yen defence is the story everyone has written.

The Yen trades a fraction under 164.00 on Tuesday, marginally weaker on the day, inside a 30-pip band with a floor above 163.50 and a high a few ticks beneath the standing cycle extreme.

The Aussie trades just beneath 0.7000 on Tuesday, down around 0.25% and last in the G10 queue, after a Sydney address from the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor gave the hike case nothing to eat.

The Euro trades just under 1.1400 on Tuesday, around 0.15% firmer, after a session that ran from a shade above 1.1350 to a fraction over 1.1400.

The Pound spends Tuesday almost perfectly still, trading just under 1.3300 with a session range under 40 pips between a floor above 1.3250 and a ceiling fractionally above 1.3300.

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao analyzes Indonesia markets after Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo’s unexpected resignation. She notes initial weakness in onshore assets as investors reassess implications for Rupiah stability and bonds.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that inflation rose 4% from a year earlier, matching the May reading. The monthly CPI is foreseen at 0.2% following the -0.7% print from May.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened policy for a second straight meeting, slightly increasing the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope while leaving the band’s centre and width unchanged.

NZD/USD trades nearly unchanged around the 0.5785 area on Tuesday, struggling to extend its earlier recovery despite a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD).

Rabobank’s strategists Mauricio Une and Renan Alves note that tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have eased slightly with a pause in hostilities, but the outlook for global energy and markets remains highly uncertain.

BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam see elevated US supercore inflation as a key argument for further tightening but still favor a July hold.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH is currently consolidating in a narrow range around 6.77. In their 1–3 week view, they maintain a downside bias toward 6.7600 as long as strong resistance at 6.7820 remains intact.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying analyzes the latest Bank of Korea (BoK) decision, noting a hawkish shift as the base rate is raised to 2.75%. The report now anticipates a faster tightening cycle, with the policy rate reaching 3.25% by year-end 2026.

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday, up 0.84%, but it is poised to finish the week down over 6.50%. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $56.00 per troy ounce, after reaching a new year-to-date (YTD) low of $54.77.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao argues China’s housing market remains in structural stagnation five years after the Evergrande crisis. National prices follow an L-shaped path, with a K-shaped divergence between Tier-1 and lower-tier cities.

The Mexican Peso loses traction against the Greenback, dropping over 0.65% during Friday’s North American session as the American currency benefits due to its safe-haven appeal as the US-Iran conflict is far from ending, despite holding talks to finish the war.

Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note USD/JPY is little changed despite strong verbal intervention from Finance Minister Katayama, who warned of decisive action at any time. Markets remain unimpressed, given repeated rhetoric and limited impact from actual Yen buying.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD has stabilised after an earlier sell-off, with spot around 1.2905 and intraday price action expected to stay confined between nearby support and resistance.

The upcoming week will be dominated by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, United Kingdom (UK) inflation and labor market figures, and preliminary global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

Gold edges higher by some 0.92% on Friday as the US-Iran conflict boosted energy prices, which ultimately drive inflation higher, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might need to raise interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades near 52,250 on Friday, down nearly 300 points late in the month's strangest session.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains neutral near the 100.90 level at the end of the American session on Monday as investors digest hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller and resilient United States (US) services data.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rally into a third straight trading session, up 0.25% on Monday, as investors adjust their interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) following a soft US jobs report last week.

BNY’s Geoff Yu stresses that Chinese equities and Chinese Yuan (CNY) remain heavily under-owned versus APAC (Asia-Pacific) peers, with cross-border holdings at very low levels.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyzes Indonesia’s May 2026 trade data, highlighting the first deficit since the pandemic and a record Oil and Gas shortfall.

NZD/USD trades under pressure near the 0.5700 level as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by hawkish-leaning comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller and resilient United States (US) services data.

Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats by some 0.50% on Monday as the Greenback remains steady despite traders repricing a less hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) following last Thursday’s softer-than-expected jobs report. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,153, down 0.50%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trims its gains on Monday after opening the week on a firmer note, as traders await greater clarity on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path before placing fresh directional bets.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has spent three weeks handing back what the war spent three months building, and the tape now reads as though February never ended.

Rabobank’s FX Strategy team discusses the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ahead of the July 8 Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting, where consensus and the bank expect a 25 bp hike to 2.5%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finally crossed 53,000 on Monday, spiking to a record just above the handle in the opening minutes and holding it for roughly the length of the ceremony that produced it.