市场资讯

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen notes that China’s May PMIs point to softer 2Q26 GDP growth, with manufacturing hovering at the expansion threshold and services rebounding only modestly.

BNY's Bob Savage notes that most MENA (Middle East and North Africa) currencies saw net selling in May after a brief April respite, with fixed income also underperforming.

The NZD/USD pair trades near the 0.5930 region on Wednesday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens following upbeat labor-market data, while investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming economic releases from New Zealand. At the time of writing, the pair declines around 0.15%.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that USD/CNH was little changed on Monday around 6.7652, but the underlying tone has softened. They expect the pair to drift lower intraday within 6.7595–6.7690 rather than stage a sharp decline.

The Euro (EUR) consolidates within familiar levels on Tuesday, flatlining around 1.1630 as the US Dollar (USD) recovers some ground, underpinned by high Oil prices amid halted US-Iran talks, even though US President Donald Trump says this is fake news.

OCBC's strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong lower their Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) forecasts despite Bank Indonesia’s (BI) larger-than-expected 50 bp hike, arguing that renewed domestic policy uncertainty and an unfavourable external backdrop are weighing on IDR.

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research has raised his USD/PHP year-end 2026 forecast to 62.7 from 57.8, reflecting persistent external and domestic pressures. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and higher Oil prices have widened trade deficits and pushed inflation well above target.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened near the 99.20 price zone after the latest JOLTS Job Openings report surged to 7.618 million in April from 6.887 million in March, well above market expectations of 6.88 million.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is sitting near the top of the major currency leaderboard, adding close to 0.3% on the day and pushing back toward 0.7200 after defending 0.7150. Almost none of that strength is homegrown.

Standard Chartered’s Tommy Wu reports that the bank’s revamped Renminbi Globalisation Index shows higher global RMB usage in February–April 2026 versus late 2025.

The Australian Dollar loses traction and edges down 0.30% on Monday as risk appetite soured due to Iran halting negotiations with the US, as Israel intensified attacks in Lebanon.

Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank argues that market concerns over Japan’s fiscal stance are exaggerated, even after a new 3.1 trillion JPY supplementary budget funded largely by debt.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects Central and Eastern European FX to start the month cautiously despite improving sentiment and busy local data.

Pound Sterling has the rare luxury, or curse, of a completely blank week. There is no first-tier United Kingdom data on the docket, no Bank of England (BoE) event, nothing for the Pound to trade on its own merits.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is in an odd spot: it has one of the few central banks in the developed world openly leaning toward higher rates, yet it still spent Monday on the back foot, down close to 1% on the day. That tells you most of what you need to know about whose week this is.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps doing the one thing Tokyo least wants: drifting weaker into the zone where intervention becomes a live question. USD/JPY firmed back above 159.50 and pressed toward the 160.00 handle on Monday, the same threshold that triggered official Yen-buying at the end of April.

BNP Paribas reports that Chinese GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026 from 4.5% in Q4 2025, but is expected to slow moderately over the year. The bank highlights a K-shaped trajectory, with dynamic exports but sluggish domestic demand and ongoing property sector stress.

The USD/CHF pair forms a ‘bullish piercing’ chart pattern on Monday, which confirms further upside, but it faces key resistance at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7868. At the time of writing, the pair is trading with a 0.70% gain, around 0.7860.

HSBC Asset Management observes that 2026 has brought sharp swings in rate expectations for the Bank of England and European Central Bank, with markets moving from cuts to hikes as Oil-linked inflation risks rise.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises toward the 99.20 region on Monday after stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data reinforced confidence in the resilience of the United States (US) economy.

The AUD/USD pair holds steady around 0.7185 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace negotiations. Also, China’s RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for May will be released later on Monday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to near $4,535, snapping the two-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal loses ground amid the lack of progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations.

China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.0 in May, compared to 50.3 in the previous reading. The reading came in line with the market consensus of 50.0 in the reported month. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that talks and message exchanges with the United States (US) were onongoing buttressed that no assessment of negotiations could be made until a clear outcome was reached, Reuters reported on Sunday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 98.90 region on Friday as improving market sentiment linked to developments in the Middle East reduces demand for safe-haven assets.

Silver (XAG/USD) price retreats 0.16% on Friday, consolidating around the $75.00-$76.00 area and is virtually unchanged, near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75.70.

Gold (XAU/USD) price advanced more than 1.50% on Friday amid news that Iran and the US are close to signing a deal aimed at extending the ceasefire for 60 days to allow negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,563, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,489.

GBP/USD holds minor gains on Friday after rebounding from intraday lows, supported by improving risk sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3460 and is on course to end the week little changed.

The USD/JPY pair trades in a muted fashion toward the 159.20 region on Friday as the United States Dollar (USD) finds support following the latest inflation data, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains pressured amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) punched out a fresh intraday record near 51,050 with the bid traceable to a Truth Social post in which President Donald Trump declared he would be in the Situation Room making a "final determination" on the US-Iran agreement and laid out terms that sounded sus

Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, failing to capitalize on improving market sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal, even as the US Dollar (USD) slides to a two-week low. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $75.60 and is on track to end the week virtually unchanged.

According to Fars news agency, the US and Iran are in the final stages of an agreement, though a final decision hasn’t been made.

The EUR/USD pair edges up by 0.12% on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) drops amid hostilities in the Middle East, while a US-Iran deal is reportedly pending approval by the White House and senior Iranian officials. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.1664.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its rebound on Friday as traders assess the prospects of a potential US-Iran deal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,583 after recovering from a two-month low of $4,366 touched on Thursday.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor Karen Silk said that the central bank is yet to see medium-term inflation pressures emerge, but it’s prepared to respond aggressively if they appear, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

The Yen got the data it had been waiting on, and proceeded to do almost nothing with it.

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose 1.4% YoY as compared to 1.5% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $4,500 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal rebounds from a two-month low ‌hit in the previous session after reports that the United States (US) and Iran had reached a ceasefire extension agreement. 

The Aussie Dollar walks into Friday's Asia session in better shape than yesterday's soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) had any right to leave it.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) print Sterling traders had been waiting for landed in the bears' lap, and the Pound did almost nothing with it. Core PCE rose 0.2% on the month against a 0.3% consensus, the softest monthly read in three.

Newswires reported that the US and Iran exchanged strikes amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The New Zealand Dollar advances some 0.48% on Thursday after bottoming near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5836. Over the last two trading days, it cleared the 0.5900 milestone, supported by a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Geoff Yu at BNY notes that Chinese bonds’ resilience to rising global inflation expectations, combined with moderately strong CNY purchases this month, sets up the Chinese Yuan for rebalancing-related selling.

Crude Oil is doing what it has done all month: discounting a peace deal that the people who actually have to sign it have not agreed to.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/SGD to edge lower intraday toward 1.2760, though a sustained break is seen as unlikely, with major support at 1.2730 intact.

The AUD/USD pair edges lower during the North American session on Friday, poised to remain sideways within key technical support and resistance levels, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7187 and the 50-day SMA at 0.7095.

DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng highlight that ASEAN-6 economies are experiencing asymmetric inflation outcomes despite a common energy shock. Indonesia and Malaysia show relatively contained inflation, while Thailand, Vietnam and Philippines face higher readings.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/CNH to trade quietly between 6.7920 and 6.8060 intraday after recent moves failed to generate fresh momentum.

OCBC notes USDSGD is trading choppily in a subdued range, closely tracking moves in the USD, Oil and UST yields. The bank sees mild bullish momentum starting to fade and maintains a bias to sell rallies, with key support around 1.2720/60 and 1.2650/70 and resistance near 1.2840/50.

Silver (XAG/USD) remains range-bound on Friday as traders avoid aggressive positioning amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations. At the time of writing, the white metal trades near $76.00 and is likely to close the week on a flat note.