市场资讯

US President Donald Trump said that “we have Iran very much under control.” But also reiterated that “we’re either going to make a deal, or they’re going to be decimated,” the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Wednesday's EIA inventory data will test how tight US crude supply has become amid the prolonged Hormuz closure.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $4,720 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. However, the potential upside for the precious metal might be limited due to hotter-than-expected US inflation and shifting geopolitical tensions.

GBP/USD lost about 0.7% on Tuesday, sliding from prior session highs near 1.3650 to test the 1.3500 round figure before a modest late-session rebound.

TD Securities’ Chief US Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz argues that 2026 US labor data suggest Artificial Intelligence is only modestly affecting employment so far. He highlights that AI adoption remains low across industries and concentrated in large, knowledge-intensive firms.

USD/JPY recovers some ground and rallies towards a daily four-day high near 157.80 as traders digest comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on undesirable volatility in the FX space, prompting a Yen buy. At the time of writing, the pair is up by over 0.30%.

NZD/USD edged lower in choppy two-way trade on Tuesday, settling slightly down for the session. The pair set its peak during the Asian and early European hours, then fell to a session low around the 0.5935 area mid-session, before recovering part of the move into the New York close.

AUD/USD swung in a choppy intraday range on Tuesday before settling little changed for the session.

Commerzbank strategists note that USD/MYR has remained in a 3.90–4.05 range since the Middle East conflict began. Malaysia’s March industrial production grew 3.1% year-on-year, supported by strong manufacturing and electronics despite weaker mining.

Standard Chartered’s Christopher Graham notes that European Union (EU) exports to the United States (US) are now contracting at rates comparable to COVID and GFC (Great Financial Crisis) periods, potentially reflecting both prior export frontloading and emerging structural weakness.

US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran is on “massive life support” after he rejected Tehran’s latest peace offer, which he called “simply unacceptable,” Bloomberg reported on Monday.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory around $4,750 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal edges higher as traders assess developments in the United States (US)-Iran diplomacy and await key US inflation data, which is due later on Tuesday. 

Sterling pulled back from a fresh peak near 1.3650 on Monday, easing close to 1.3610 through European trade after the Asian session squeezed the Pound to a new local high.

The Australian Dollar firmed by less than 0.1% on Monday, holding around 0.7250 in another range-bound session below the 0.7280 ceiling.

ING’s Lynn Song notes that stronger China Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data in April, alongside resilient exports, reinforce a reflation narrative that reduces urgency for People’s Bank of China (PBoC) easing.

Silver (XAG/USD) price rallies over 7% on Monday, clearing key technical resistance at $83.05, the April 17 daily high, and also the $85.00 psychological figure, which opened the door towards the $86.00 per troy ounce handle, its highest level in the last two months.

Societe Generale analysts observe USD/CNY trading below 6.80, with the Chinese Yuan at its strongest level since February 2023 ahead of the US/China summit.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding firm near the 97.95 region as investors remain cautious despite some improvement in overall market sentiment and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying revises Taiwan’s policy rate outlook after upgrading 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts. The team now expects an additional 12.5 bps hike in 3Q, taking the policy discount rate to 2.125%.

BNP Paribas economists note Chinese GDP growth at 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, after 5% in 2025, and expects a moderate slowdown in 2026. They highlight a K-shaped pattern with strong exports but weak domestic demand and ongoing property sector stress.

Iran has sent its response to the United States (US) proposal via Pakistan on Sunday, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

Rabobank strategists assess how the US and Israel’s war against Iran could affect China. They note higher Oil and gas prices and global cost-push inflation, but argues China’s inflation is unlikely to force PBOC tightening.

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that Taiwan’s April trade data showed slower export and import growth versus expectations, with the trade surplus easing to USD14.35bn.

Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra notes Indonesia’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by front-loaded fiscal stimulus, seasonal festival spending and limited pass-through from higher Oil prices.

Silver (XAG/USD) price advances more than 2.50% on Friday, set to end the week with gains of over 7% sponsored by US Dollar (USD) weakness and falling Oil prices. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $80.72, after bouncing off daily lows of $78.16.

Wells Fargo Economics projects Brazil’s April IPCA inflation to rise 0.9% month-over-month and around 4.5% year-over-year, near or above the target band. Energy and food pressures are intensifying, while inflation expectations have risen.

MUFG economists Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee outline a base case where the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by end‑May eases pressures on Asian currencies.

Indian investors continue to pile up their bets on Gold via Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), contributing to the rebound in demand for the precious metal as spot prices stabilize after March’s sharp decline.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, falls some 2.49% on Friday, poised to end the week with losses of over 7.39%, amid growing speculation that the US and Iran will reach an agreement to end the conflict.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that any relief from a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for Aluminium will likely be short‑lived.

US Central Command said Thursday that US forces targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for launching attacks against warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, CNN reported.

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady near $4,685 during the early Asian session on Friday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US employment data for April, which is due later in the day. 

GBP/USD edged slightly lower to around 1.3550 on Thursday, lower around 0.3% after the pair touched a session high near 1.3645 before turning back down.

AUD/USD edged about 0.2% lower on Thursday to around 0.7205, easing back from a multi-year peak just shy of 0.7280 reached earlier in the session.

USD/JPY recovered close to 156.90 on Thursday, edging up roughly 0.4% from Wednesday's slide to 155.04, the lowest level since early February.

The Mexican Peso erases some of its earlier gains and drops some 0.13% as the USD/MXN pair advances after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut rates and warned that the easing cycle has ended. The exotic pair trades at 17.27 after testing a low of 17.19.

The NZD/USD pair is trading with a softer tone near the 0.5940 region on Friday, pressured by cautious market sentiment as investors continue tp react to rapidly changing headlines surrounding the potential peace agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe USD/IDR as easing from overbought territory as hopes of a US–Iran deal support sentiment. Bank Indonesia’s (BI) tighter rules on cash FX purchases and comments that the Rupiah (IDR) is undervalued back stabilization efforts.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying expects the Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep its base rate at 2.50% at the May 28 meeting, but now projects a single 25 bps hike in 3Q 2026 to 2.75%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading with a softer tone near the 98.10 area as markets continue reacting to rapidly shifting headlines surrounding the potential peace agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the US-Iran conflict is looking more like an inflationary shock.

GBP/JPY retreats over 0.55% on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen strengthened in the aftermath of last week’s intervention in the FX markets by Japanese authorities. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 212.60 after reaching a daily peak of 214.23.

Societe Generale analysts Kunal Kundu and Galvin Chia say Indonesia’s early‑2026 fiscal deterioration is driven by front‑loaded expenditure, with the primary balance already in deficit and raising financing needs.

USD/CHF edges lower on Wednesday, breaching a key support trendline at around 0.7800 as the pair extends its downtrend, falling over 0.50% at the time of writing. The pair trades at 0.7789, as traders target the March 10 swing low at 0.7748.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slides near the 98.00 area, with limited losses supported by resilient United States (US) data but capped by improving risk sentiment after Axios reported that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal aimed at ending the conflict.

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that the Philippines faces heightened vulnerability to Middle East supply disruptions, with April Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging to 7.2% year-on-year, far above expectations.

Gold (XAU/USD) price rallies nearly 3% on Wednesday amid growing speculation of an end to the Iran war, weighing on the Greenback and pushing US Treasury yields lower. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,681 after bouncing off daily highs of $4,723.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the iFlow Carry index briefly turned negatively significant as investors sold nine of fifteen high-yield currencies, suggesting growing profit-taking after a resilient run.

USD/JPY stages a modest rebound on Wednesday after coming under pressure earlier in the day amid another suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 156.42 after recovering from an intraday low near 155.00.

ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang notes that South Korean inflation accelerated in April on higher energy prices, but government measures such as food vouchers, a gasoline price cap and frozen utility tariffs helped limit the increase.