Market Information

Nomura’s Senior European Economist Andrzej Szczepaniak assesses how recent moves in crude Oil, Natural Gas and EUR/USD following the US/Israel conflict with Iran could affect euro area HICP and ECB expectations.

HSBC Asset Management notes a spike in the policy uncertainty index on recent US trade and Federal Reserve headlines, even as US stocks range-trade and volatility stays contained. The team sees US growth near trend, with sticky but gradually moderating inflation through 2026.

ING’s commodities strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson say Gold is pushing higher as markets react to escalating tensions between the US, Israel and Iran.

The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/INR pair rising 0.25% to near 91.80 amid sour market sentiment and surging oil prices due to a brutal war between the United States (US) and Iran.

Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to strong intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trades above the $5,400 mark, or its highest level since late January.

Dow Jones futures fall 1.43% to near 48,300 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 1.42% and 1.74% to near 6,790 and 24,570 at the time of writing.

The AUD/USD pair trades 0.85% lower to near 0.7050 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair plummets as risk-off market sentiment amid the United States (US)-Iran war has weighed heavily on the Australian Dollar (AUD).

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that U.S. ISM surveys, PMIs and the jobs report will be central for Dollar and rates pricing this week.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) said during European trading hours on Monday that it could intervene in the foreign exchange market in an attempt to ease excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 2:

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, notes the Canadian Dollar is ended the week slightly stronger versus the US Dollar, with cross-currents from equities and crude.

EUR/JPY pares daily losses but remains in the negative territory, trading around 184.00 during the early European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows a consolidation phase as the currency cross remains within the horizontal channel.

Here are comments from China’s foreign ministry on the conflict between the United States (US), Iran, and Israel.

Rabobank analysts argue that, with geopolitics reshaping the world economy in real time, upcoming macro data are of secondary importance.

The USD/JPY pair is up 0.5% to near 157.00 during the European trading session on Monday, rising closer to the monthly high of 157.30. The pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms its peers amid the ongoing war between the United States (US), Isreal and Iran.

The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to around 0.7695 during the early European trading hours on Monday.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that escalating conflict in the Middle East and a potential Oil supply shock are negative for EUR/USD. The bank highlights the United States’ reserve currency role, its net Oil exporter status and relatively stronger economic resilience versus the Euro area.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights a sharp jump in Brent crude after US-Israel strikes on Iran and an OPEC+ decision to raise output.

USD/CAD gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) rises on increased safe-haven demand amid escalating Middle East tensions.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino said on Monday that even if headline inflation falls below 2%, the central bank could raise interest rates toward neutral if it judge underlying inflation is accelerating to our price target. 

The Pound Sterling underperforms its major currency pairs, except antipodeans, and is down 0.6% to near 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the late Asian trading session on Monday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices trim a part of strong intraday gains to levels beyond the $73.00 mark, or the highest since June 2025, touched this Monday in reaction to a dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Iran’s national security chief, Ali Larijani, said the country will not negotiate with the United States in response to reports that he reached out to Washington via Oman mediators, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to near  $93.75 during the early European session on Monday, pressured by a renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

The EUR/USD pair claws back some of its early losses during the late Asian trading session on Monday, but is still 0.25% down to near 1.1780.

The GBP/JPY cross rebounds swiftly from the Asian session low, around the 209.00 mark, and climbs to a fresh daily high in the last hour, filling the weekly bearish gap opening.

Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The AUD/USD pair rebounds following the weekly bearish gap opening to the 0.7030 area, or the lower end of a three-week-old range, and climbs back above the 0.7100 mark during the Asian session.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed that the RAF base Akrotiri has been hit by a suspected drone strike amid a fresh conflict in the Middle East that started on Saturday, BBC reported. 

EUR/GBP moves sideways after two days of gains, trading around 0.8770 during the Asian hours on Monday.

The NZD/USD pair is up 0.16% to near 0.5990 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The kiwi pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) ticks up, while investors seek fresh cues on the United States (US) interest rate outlook.

The USD/CAD pair trades with mild losses near 1.3675 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. US policy fog continues to weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price loses ground after registering little gains in the previous session, trading around $65.00 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday.

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles for a firm near-term direction and remains confined in a multi-day-old range during the Asian session on Friday.

Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, said that talks between the United States (US) and Iran on nuclear issues have made "significant progress,” Reuters reported on Thursday.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, announced on Friday that it will cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0%, starting March 2.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers for the second straight day following the release of Tokyo inflation figures and slides to the 155.65 area during the Asian session on Friday.

The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3485 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Greenback amid rising UK political uncertainty surrounding the Gorton and Denton by-election.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 6.9228 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9228 and 6.8428 Reuters estimate.

AUD/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.7110 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the downside of the pair could be limited as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may strengthen on cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy outlook.

The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.1800 during the early Asian session on Friday. The pair steadies as softer Eurozone inflation offsets US tariff uncertainties.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights USD/SGD as the weakest non-carry pair over the past month, with sustained net selling pressure. However, the last two sessions have seen softer outflows, suggesting momentum is turning.

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose 1.6% YoY as compared to 1.5% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $5,195 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as US tariff uncertainty spurs safe-haven demand. Traders await the release of the US January Producer Price Index (PPI) reports later on Friday for fresh impetus. 

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar is mixed within a multi‑month range while USD/CNH continues to grind lower, reaching its weakest level since March 2023. The bank sees further downside potential as a stronger Yuan supports China’s shift toward consumption-led growth.

The rally on the AUD/JPY was halted on Thursday as the cross-pair retreated some 0.40% during the session on broad strength of the Japanese Yen. Hawkish comments by two officials of the Bank of Japan, weighed on the pair, which trades below the 111.00 mark at the time of writing.

Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao and Shuang Ding expect China to set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0% at the National People’s Congress, slightly below 2025.

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng notes that the Bank of Thailand surprised markets with a 25bps rate cut to 1.00% at its first 2026 meeting, following earlier easing since October 2024.

Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending February 21 came in at 212K, below economists' expectations of 215K but slightly above the previous reading of 208K. Continuing Claims also declined to 1.833 million, signaling stabilization in labor market conditions.

USD/CHF recovers some ground on Thursday, rising some 0.19% as the Greenback appreciates and bounces off daily lows beneath 0.7700 on solid US data. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7743, yet it remains shy of the key resistance level seen at 0.7817, the February 2 daily peak.